A First in Decades: Population Growth in Cape Breton – Unama’ki

You read that right! For this inaugural post, we’re going to focus on population growth in Nova Scotia and particularly, Cape Breton Island!

I’ve been very excited to write about this milestone since the release of the population and dwellings (2021 census) tables earlier in February. It was also a solid reason to finally start this journal to share my professional analyses, opinions, important news and trends. There will be more covered on the census coinciding with their dissemination plan.

When It All Started to Pick Up

In 2016, Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency (ACOA), a federal organization dedicated to promoting opportunities for economic growth in the region, launched its Atlantic Canada’s Growth Strategy. The strategy had an important pillar (Skilled Workforce & Immigration), targeted at helping employers fill labour shortages. Out of that stemmed the Atlantic Immigration Pilot, a partnership between the four Atlantic provinces and the federal government to support employers attract and retain foreign talent in the region. The Pilot was officially launched in March of 2017.

September of that year, I moved back to join the Cape Breton Partnership, the island’s economic development organization, to support federal and provincial partners in the rollout. That’s where my specialization in employer immigration began.

Cape Breton Island, or Cape Breton as an economic region, includes

• Cape Breton Regional Municipality (CBRM),
• Inverness County (also includes the Town of Port Hawkesbury),
• Victoria County, and
• Richmond County.

Cape Breton immigration stakeholders, including the Cape Breton Partnership (CBP), have been working towards addressing labour shortages and reversing population decline for some time. Partners were looking to get their fair share of newcomers to Cape Breton compared to our urban center (Halifax). But this isn’t a trend just within Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia is also trying to get its fair share of newcomers compared to other provinces. So if we get our fair share, we support the province in getting their fair share, and everyone is happy!

Cape Breton is 13.2% of Nova Scotia’s total population. To support the province in reaching that 2.7% target, Cape Breton as an island should aim to attract and welcome 1,422 new permanent residents yearly.

In December of 2021, I moved on to a new role, narrowing my focus to addressing the shortages in healthcare, but during my time at CBP, we regularly presented to the municipal units on the benefits of immigration, demography, current and looming labour shortages, the retiring wave of baby boomers, and other immigration-related statistics that were important for us to track.

I enjoy looking at the estimates and permanent residency admissions tables to analyze and write reports to funders and partners on how our work makes a difference, the impact of policy changes and how we might be able to do better. Now, I’m writing to whoever finds this content useful. You’re my audience!

Let’s get to it!

It Was a Lot More Than a Handful

Our presentations on the benefits and need for immigration always started with a section that notoriously got called “The Doom & Gloom”. It was a great wake-up call to our audience to understand the realities of our region, and how unsustainable the decline was. It also woke up the room pretty quick!

At the time, Canada was looking to increase its population by 1% year over year. We (Cape Breton) were losing 1% of our population year over year when the 2016 census came out. That was about 1,200 residents almost evenly split between negative natural decline (more deaths than births) and outmigration.

So, you might think growing by 9 isn’t a big deal… It’s not about what we gained; it’s about what we reversed (1,200) to make this gain possible. A lot of pieces had to come together for this to happen. Coordination, settlement, leadership etc.

Before the 2021 census, Cape Breton lost:

• 10% (15,973) of its population between the 1996-2006 census
• 4% (6,324) of its population between the 2006-2011 census
• 3% (3,964) of its population between the 2011-2016 census

I knew we were on track to make a dent! But, I don’t think many of us expected it to be during this census.

Changes in demography are now of interest. Cape Breton Island has an older population in the 65+ cohort (23.6%) compared to Nova Scotia (19.9%), and Canada (16.9%) during the last census (2016). We also had a whopping decrease of 14.2% in the 15-24 age group between 2011 and 2016.

The data set with demographic details will be released on April 27th, and you’ll see another post from me sometime after that.

We’re Small But Mighty!

And I don’t mean just Cape Breton Island or Nova Scotia… Even our smallest counties are MEGA MIGHTY!

So in the case of Cape Breton, we need to talk about Victoria County!

There’s no doubt Victoria County has had a fair share of investments in the past few years; Cape Smokey and Atlantic Canada’s first Gondola. Business is booming in the region.

Victoria County makes up only 6% of Cape Breton Island’s population.

They’ve added 351 new residents, a 5% increase! When compared to the rest of Nova Scotia, they even surpassed Halifax in percentage increase of private dwellings! Victoria county added 7.1% while Halifax added 7%.

To be fair, Victoria county was not fluctuating aggressively in population counts before this census period. But they are now hovering just a little under their 2006 census total of 7, 594.

Inverness… Beautiful Inverness is the only other municipality on Cape Breton to post a net increase in its population. A modest 0.6% but hey, this is all gold!

Urban to Rural

We now have the numbers, and I can confirm that urban to rural migration really is happening! For Nova Scotia, the rural population grew by 1.3% (5, 147) from 2016 to 2021. Yes, the urban population also grew by 7.7% and we also just crossed the 1 million population milestone! #KillingIT

A CBC article from December 2021 titled, young people flocking to Nova Scotia as population reaches 1 million milestone, highlighted the Ontarian outflow to Nova Scotia, the unprecedented growth in Halifax, challenges we’re expected to face, and how rural housing affordability seems to be a draw.

The rapid shift toward telework, which occurred during the pandemic, has allowed people to seek more affordable housing markets in suburban or rural areas. Additionally, telework arrangements now allow many individuals who currently live in rural areas to access urban job markets without relocating.

Both of these changes can contribute to positive rural population growth. Since March 2020, 20% to 40% of the labour force has been engaged in telework, up from 5.7% in February 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

Population growth in Canada’s rural areas, 2016 to 2021 (Statistics Canada, 2022)

With high-speed internet becoming accessible across the province, one can suspect that the advantages of the rural/urban mix and the balanced lifestyle in Nova Scotia will most certainly become more of a key competitive advantage!

The housing situation of course is a challenge. All you need to do is key in a simple google search for “Housing Shortages” and you’ll find endless sources, articles, and reports articulating the issue from a different angle. Better yet, go to the Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS page and check out their statistics.

A couple of days ago, a CBC article highlighted how some Halifax Councillors are worried if housing can keep up with the population targets. I believe, any well-resourced initiative, with the right human and financial capital, can overcome challenges previously believed impossible. Yes, that also includes our challenges with climate change!

Immigration is Booming!

Not only did Nova Scotia have a strong positive interprovincial migration recently, but we also pulled off an incredible year for immigration in 2021!

On February 18, 2022, Nova Scotia issues a news release confirming a New Record for the Highest Number of Landed Immigrants in a Year

Here are some notable highlights!

All percentages figures below are compared to the
pre-pandemic highs of 2019.

• Canada saw record new permanent residency admission in 2021 (20% increase). But they were within targets set in their 2021-2023 Immigration Levels Plan.
  
• Similar to Canada, Nova Scotia saw a 20% increase and a record new high for the province with a total of 9,020!
  
• Looking back since 2015, all municipal units saw record high permanent residency admissions in 2021, with the exception of Annapolis, Shelburne, and Victoria.
  
• Cape Breton Island saw a 71% increase (660 new permanent residents) and a record new high for the economic region.
  
• Inverness, Cumberland, Colchester, and Digby saw increases well over 100% (double).

Where are We Going Next?

I’m going to close with two bullet points from the current government’s Mandate Letter to the Minister of Labour, Skills and Immigration, the Honourable Jill Balser:

• Set a goal of a population of 2,000,000 by 2060 by attracting on average 25,000 people per year working with partners across the province in pursuit of this goal.

• Target a minimum of 10,000 to 15,000 new migrants each year from across Canada

Honourable, Tim Houston, M.L.A. Premier of Nova Scotia

Honestly, these are all within reach between interprovincial and international migration. Due to the demographical trends, and the increasing vacancy rates in some sectors in most provinces and across Canada, it’s the only way forward!

Some thought we were a little too ambitious when we aimed to reverse the population decline in Cape Breton back in 2017. Well… It still happened, and there’s a lot more happening in the background!

Believe it, the CBRM is the new urban center and its on a massive building campaign thanks to infrastructure investments. Learn all about it in the Building Tomorrow website, which was specifically created to highlight the new NSCC Waterfront Campus and Healthcare Redevelopment projects.

I’m going to stop here and I hope you enjoyed the read!

And if you did, leave a comment…